Seismic Hazard Assessment and Failure Analysis of Structural Risk in Afghanistan

Abstract

Afghanistan is considered one of the regions with high seismic hazard due to its location within the collision zone of the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates. Consequently, structures in the country are highly vulnerable to earthquake-induced damage. The primary research question of this study is to determine the level of seismic hazard in the investigated regions, with a particular focus on Kunduz City, and to identify the factors that most significantly influence structural failure. The objective of this research is to analyze seismic hazard in Afghanistan, focusing on Kunduz City, and to examine patterns of structural failure under different seismic conditions. This study adopts a review-analytical approach and utilizes findings from previous studies as well as two principal earthquake hazard assessment methods: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA). The findings indicate that seismic hazard levels across various regions of Afghanistan, particularly in Kunduz, are significant, with high values of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) being estimated. Furthermore, the observed structural failure patterns primarily include shear cracks in masonry walls, connection failures in reinforced concrete structures, and out-of-plane wall collapses. These failures are strongly influenced by factors such as construction quality, material type, and distance from the seismic source. The results demonstrate that deficiencies in seismic design and non-compliance with building standards play a fundamental role in increasing structural vulnerability. Therefore, updating building codes, implementing modern seismic design approaches, and improving construction quality are recommended as essential measures for reducing seismic risk in Afghanistan.